By 1812Blockhouse
The University of Cincinnati Economics Center has released its annual Holiday Forecast of Ohio Retail Spending, and the numbers again look very positive for Mansfield and north central Ohio – in fact, better than any other metro area in the state.
This is at least the third time in the last four years that that has been the case.
Overall findings included the following:
- The Economics Center forecasts a 7.3 percent increase in Ohio relevant retail spending for the 2021 holiday season relative to the 2020 season, with total sales of $31.4 billion.
- Full-year relevant retail sales in Ohio have exhibited sustained growth over recent years. Relevant retail sales during the first half of 2020 experienced minimal growth compared to the first half of 2019, however, relevant retail sales during the second half of 2020 experienced large gains compared to the second half of 2019.
- Online shopping continues to be a growing component of retail sales, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic. Growth in nonstore retail sales, which includes online and mobile shopping, greatly exceeded overall retail sales growth in Ohio in 2020 compared to 2019.
- Ohio’s labor market indicators have improved since the second half of 2020 corresponding with the COVID-19 pandemic recovery, however, employment in Ohio during Q3 2021 remains 2.5 percent less than pre-pandemic levels in Q1 2020.
- Conversely, wages and salaries in Ohio have increased 4.0 percent between Q1 2020 and Q2 2021.
- Overall, U.S. consumer confidence has increased between December 2020 and October 2021, however, consumer confidence decreased each month beginning in July 2021 and continued through September 2021. Consumer confidence has partially recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic but remains below the peak experienced in February 2020.
- The Economics Center projects that the State’s three largest metro areas will again account for more than half of estimated relevant retail sales this holiday season.
- Economics Center forecasts indicate that all nine of the metro areas in Ohio analyzed will experience an increase in holiday relevant retail sales in 2021 over 2020.
The last point above is reflected in specific sales forecasts for regions of the state. Those numbers show that Mansfield is projected to have the highest increase in Ohio over 2020 sales:
- Akron – 0.4%
- Cincinnati – 5.5%
- Cleveland – 2.7%
- Columbus – 0.2%
- Dayton – 10.2%
- Lima – 4.0%
- Mansfield – 12.4%
- Toledo 2.6%
- Youngstown 0.5%
The study concludes,
“The Economics Center forecasts a growth of 7.3 percent in statewide holiday relevant retail sales for 2021, which is consistent with national forecasts. Total statewide holiday sales are expected to reach $31.4 billion, up from nearly $29.3 billion in 2020. Compared to 2020, more holiday spending is expected to occur in all nine metro regions analyzed in Ohio. Mansfield, Dayton, and Cincinnati are forecasted to experience the largest increase in relevant retail sales in 2021. The three largest areas – Columbus, Cleveland, and Cincinnati – will again account for more than half of sales. Following trends in recent years, consumers continue to focus more on online shopping, especially this holiday season due to the COVID19 pandemic. Overall, online retailers again are expected to increase their share of the
holiday retail market.”
