By 1812Blockhouse
It sounds as if there will be a bit more “Ho Ho Ho” this year in the greater Mansfield area.
The projections for holiday sales in Ohio, issued this past Monday by the Ohio Council of Retail Merchants, places Mansfield among the seven Ohio metro areas set to enjoy increased sales this year – in fact, the third highest.
The holiday period is, of course, a crucial time for Ohio retailers, often being the key period in which they achieve enough sales to turn a profit for the year. Traditionally, the onset of the holiday shopping season is marked by “Black Friday” and “Cyber Monday.” This expected surge in sales and business activity prompts companies to engage in seasonal hiring, creating temporary job opportunities.
Among the findings released this year:
- The Economics Center forecasts a 0.7 percent increase in Ohio relevant retail spending for the 2023 holiday season relative to the 2022 season, with total sales of $32.2 billion.
- Full-year relevant retail sales in Ohio have exhibited sustained growth over recent years. Relevant retail sales during the first half of 2021 experienced substantial growth compared to the first half of 2020, however, relevant retail sales have experienced smaller year-over-year gains since the first half of 2022.
- Online shopping continues to be a growing component of retail sales, although growth is stabilizing since the COVID-19 pandemic. Growth in nonstore retail sales, which includes online and mobile shopping, exceeded overall retail sales growth in Ohio in 2022 compared to 2021.
- Ohio’s labor market indicators have improved since the second half of 2020, corresponding with the COVID-19 pandemic recovery. Employment in Ohio during Q3 2023 was 2.6 percent higher than pre-pandemic levels in Q1 2020. Additionally, wages and salaries in Ohio have increased 28.1 percent between Q1 2020 and Q2 2023.
- Consumer confidence has partially recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic but remains below the peak experienced in February 2020. Furthermore, consumer confidence remains 26 points below the post-pandemic peak experienced in June 2021. Consumer confidence has experienced month-over-month declines between August and October 2023.
- Inflation in the Midwest has been increasing at higher rates since 2020. Inflation in the Midwest increased by 5.7 percent between September 2020 and September 2021 and increased by 8.1 percent between September 2021 and September 2022. However, inflation in the Midwest slowed to 3.2 percent between September 2022 and September 2023. To curb rising inflation, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates 11 times since March 2022, including four interest rate hikes in 2023.
- The Economics Center projects that the State’s three largest metro areas will again account for more than half (55.0%) of estimated relevant retail sales this holiday season. Economics Center forecasts indicate that seven of the nine metro areas analyzed in Ohio will experience an increase in holiday relevant retail sales in 2023 over 2022.
Here are the projections for nine Ohio metropolitan areas in terms of holiday spending:
| Metro Area | 2022 Sales (in Millions) | 2023 Forecast (in Millions) | Growth Rate (2022-2023) | Share of State 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akron | $1,946 | $1,975 | 1.5% | 6.1% |
| Cincinnati | $5,033 | $5,125 | 1.8% | 15.9% |
| Cleveland | $5,730 | $5,480 | -4.4% | 17.0% |
| Columbus | $6,729 | $7,080 | 5.2% | 22.0% |
| Dayton | $2,121 | $2,104 | -0.8% | 6.5% |
| Lima | $278 | $286 | 2.9% | 0.9% |
| Mansfield | $300 | $311 | 3.7% | 1.0% |
| Toledo | $1,624 | $1,649 | 1.5% | 5.1% |
| Youngstown | $1,045 | $1,116 | 6.8% | 3.5% |
