By 1812Blockhouse
The 2024 holiday season is shaping up to be a promising period for retail spending across Ohio, with the Mansfield metro area expected to lead the state in year-over-year growth. According to the 2024 Forecast of Ohio Holiday Retail Spending, prepared for the Ohio Council of Retail Merchants, Mansfield is projected to experience a remarkable 7.3% increase in holiday retail sales compared to 2023. This growth rate not only surpasses all other metro areas in the state but also signals the region’s robust economic recovery and thriving local commerce.
Strong Growth Across Ohio’s Metro Areas
Ohio’s nine metro areas are forecasted to see a collective uptick in holiday retail spending, reflecting broader economic improvements since the COVID-19 pandemic. While growth rates vary, Mansfield’s standout performance sets it apart, followed by Columbus and Youngstown.
Here’s a detailed look at the 2024 Holiday Relevant Retail Sales Forecast for Ohio’s metro areas:
| Metro Area | 2023 Sales (Millions) | 2024 Forecast (Millions) | Growth Rate (2023-24) | Share of State 2024 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mansfield | $274 | $294 | 7.3% | 1.0% |
| Columbus | $6,259 | $6,588 | 5.3% | 21.7% |
| Youngstown | $981 | $1,023 | 4.3% | 3.4% |
| Akron | $1,810 | $1,835 | 1.4% | 6.0% |
| Cincinnati | $4,903 | $4,931 | 0.6% | 16.2% |
| Cleveland | $5,355 | $5,377 | 0.4% | 17.7% |
| Dayton | $2,018 | $2,053 | 1.7% | 6.7% |
| Lima | $264 | $271 | 2.7% | 0.9% |
| Toledo | $1,525 | $1,528 | 0.2% | 5.0% |
Mansfield’s Economic Resurgence
Mansfield’s anticipated 7.3% growth in holiday retail sales reflects a combination of factors driving the local economy. Key contributors include:
- Local Investments: Mansfield has seen revitalization efforts and increased consumer spending in its downtown area, supporting small businesses and retail outlets.
- Population Trends: While smaller in size, the region has maintained a steady consumer base with a penchant for holiday shopping.
- Inflation Trends: Eased inflation in the Midwest (2.5% from September 2023 to September 2024) has likely contributed to increased purchasing power for Mansfield residents.
Statewide Holiday Retail Spending on the Rise
Ohio as a whole is forecasted to generate $30.4 billion in holiday retail sales, a modest 1.1% increase over 2023. Although growth rates have tapered since the pandemic’s initial recovery years, sustained gains in employment and wages continue to fuel consumer spending. Ohio’s labor market, for instance, has seen a 6.8% increase in employment since 2020, with wages rising by 20% between 2020 and 2023.
Nonstore retail sales—encompassing online and mobile shopping—also remain a growing component of overall retail spending, although the rapid acceleration witnessed during the pandemic has now stabilized.
Economic Indicators to Watch
Several economic trends will continue to influence holiday spending in Ohio:
- Consumer Confidence: While improving, consumer confidence remains 20 points below the peak levels seen in 2021. Recent month-over-month declines in 2024 (February-April, June, and September) may temper consumer enthusiasm.
- Federal Reserve Policy: Inflation, once a significant challenge, has eased to 2.5% in the Midwest. In response, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates twice in 2024, bringing the target range to 4.5%–4.75%. These cuts aim to spur economic activity during the holiday season.
What Mansfield’s Growth Means for Ohio
Mansfield’s retail performance serves as a bellwether for smaller metro areas in Ohio, proving that targeted economic efforts can yield substantial results. With holiday spending poised for a boost, the region could solidify its position as a rising economic hub. Meanwhile, larger metro areas like Columbus, Cleveland, and Cincinnati continue to anchor Ohio’s overall retail sector, collectively accounting for 55.6% of holiday retail sales.
