The University of Cincinnati Economics Center has released its annual Holiday Forecast of Ohio Retail Spending, and the numbers look very positive for Mansfield and north central Ohio – in fact, better than any other metro area in the state.
Overall findings included the following:
- The Economics Center forecasts a 0.8 percent increase in Ohio retail spending for the 2019 holiday season relative to the 2018 season, with total sales of $25.3 billion.
- Holiday retail spending in Ohio in 2019 is expected to be 6.8 percent higher than in 2016, when consumer confidence shot upward toward the end of the year, and 5.7 percent higher than in 2017.
- The Economics Center forecast is muted compared to national forecasts, reflecting slower economic growth in Ohio (1.3%) than the United States (2.0%) during Q2 2019.
- Full-year retail sales in Ohio have exhibited sustained and robust growth over recent years, but the growth has been distributed across the calendar year and not limited to the holiday season.
- Ohio’s labor market indicators have shown no signs of weakening over the past year. Real wage and salary growth continues to be positive along with employment growth. However, overall U.S. consumer confidence has declined over the past year.
- Online shopping continues to be a growing component of retail sales, with mobile shopping playing a larger role. Growth in nonstore retail sales, which include online and mobile shopping, greatly exceeded overall retail sales growth in Ohio in 2018.
- The Economics Center projects that the State’s three largest metro areas will again account for more than half of estimated retail sales this holiday season.
- Economics Center forecasts indicate that five of Ohio’s metro areas will enjoy holiday retail sales growth in 2019 over 2018.
The last point above is reflected in specific sales forecasts for regions of the state. Those numbers show that Mansfield is projected to have the highest increase in Ohio over 2018 sales:
- Akron 0.2%
- Cincinnati -1.3%
- Cleveland -0.1%
- Columbus -1.0%
- Dayton 0.7%
- Lima 0.0%
- Mansfield 6.0%
- Toledo 1.5%
- Youngstown 2.7%
The study concludes, “The Economics Center forecasts continued growth in statewide holiday retail sales for 2019, at 0.8 percent, which is lower than national forecasts. Total statewide holiday sales – which includes sales by nonstore retailers, such as Amazon, and entertainment and experience purchases – are expected to reach $25.3 billion, up from $25.1 billion in 2018. Positive growth is expected across five of the nine metro regions analyzed in Ohio, but growth is projected to vary considerably. Mansfield, Youngstown, and Toledo are forecasted to experience the greatest positive growth. The three largest areas – Columbus, Cleveland, and Cincinnati – will again account for more than half of sales, but each will experience decreased sales in 2019 relative to 2018. Shoppers are increasingly shifting toward online platforms and expect convenience, efficiency, and, in many cases, a compelling experience from their in-store purchases. Overall, online retailers again are expected to increase their share of the holiday retail market.”
The full report is available here.
